Earl Updates

You may have noticed by now I am sort of a hurricane geek.  Mostly this comes due to my role as the Deputy Director of Emergency Management for the Town of Dudley, Massachusetts.  I will try and post updates here as I get them from various  sources.  Stay alert as storms have a way of changing quickly.  Be prepared.  Nothing wrong with a little extra caution.  Better to be prepared then to be caught off guard.  Check back as I will try and keep things updated for the next few days.

Report as of 9:00am 3 September 2010

Earl has weakened overnight to a Category 2 storm, with sustained winds of 105 mph. Its current location is near 35.3N, 74.0W, moving NNE at 18 mph. Earl’s projected path has shifted to the east, but still brings it within 100 miles of Nantucket Friday evening as a Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive in southeastern MA this afternoon and persist through early Saturday morning. Hurricane force wind gusts are possible on the outer Cape and Nantucket. 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible on the Cape and Islands, with 1 to 3 inches of rain forecast in the rest of southeastern MA, with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible on the Cape and Islands. Flash flooding is possible in urban and poor drainage areas, but main stem rivers are not anticipated to flood. Storm surge is not expected to be a major issue as the storm will be passing Massachusetts after high tide, but high surf and rip currents will persist along the Massachusetts coast through Saturday and possibly into Sunday.

Over the past 48 hours, local, state, Federal, voluntary, and private-sector organizations have engaged in extensive pre-planning for this event. Personnel, commodities, and resources have been located and pre-positioned to assist in mass sheltering, debris clearance, search and rescue, and damage assessment. The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) in Framingham was activated at 7:00 am today and will remain activated 24/7 until further notice.

Report as of 9:00am 2 September 2010
NWS reports that Hurricane Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane. Earl currently has maximum sustained winds of 145mph. Its current location is near 30.1N, 74.8W, moving NNW at 18mph. Earl’s projected path now brings it approximately 22 miles SE of Nantucket late Friday into early Saturday morning potentially as a Category 3 storm. On this track (note: the margin for error can be 200 miles), the impacts remain high surf and rip currents, with expected issues for swimmers and boaters, starting today and going through Saturday. 10-20’ seas are expected left of the eye, with 30-40’+ seas right of the eye as it passes our area. Expect rainfall throughout the day on Friday (heaviest between noon & midnight) of 2-4” are expected throughout the eastern 1/3 of MA. There will also be a yet-to-be-determined axis of 4-8” that could fall in that region. Urban street, poor drainage area and small stream flooding is possible. This is an issue for campgrounds and low-lying areas. There may also be the potential of minor/moderate flooding in a number of rivers on Saturday/Sunday. Presently, Earl expects to pack hurricane force winds on the Cape and Islands. Tropical storm force winds may reach interior SE MA. Tree damage and power losses may be an issue. Storm surge could be an issue with the Friday 7-8:00 p.m. high tide on Nantucket & Martha Vineyard. A more westerly track will obviously have greater impacts statewide.

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